L’impact de la guerre en Ukraine sur le monde arabe

Avec Joseph Daher, enseignant, auteur et fondateur du blog “Syria Freedom Forever”. Que les guerres lointaines puissent avoir des retombées locales n’est plus à démontrer. L’actuel conflit ukrainien nous le rappelle d’ailleurs avec acuité. Les pays du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord ne sont pas isolés des dynamiques mondiales et ressentent durement les conséquences de la guerre en Ukraine. Cette dernière a déjà un large impact sur l’économie mondiale, en particulier sur les marchés des matières premières, avec une escalade rapide des prix du pétrole et du gaz, mais aussi ceux des produits agricoles. Depuis l’invasion russe, les ports de la mer Noire ont pratiquement cessé toute forme d’activité commerciale, ce qui a entraîné une hausse historique des prix du blé, dépassant même les niveaux observés lors de la crise alimentaire mondiale de 2007-2008. Les pays arabes sont-ils préparés à surmonter cette nouvelle crise ou devrions-nous craindre de nouvelles révolutions de la faim ?

Modération d’Isabel Ruck.

Understanding Capitalism in the MENA and the Process of Neoliberal Reform

Alongside the absence of democracy, or its significant shortcomings, the widespread economic marginalization and intense socioeconomic grievances constituted one of the most important causes of the uprisings that erupted in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2011 and the more recent ones in 2019. Behind the appearance of positive or decent macroeconomic performance, regional countries suffered and continue to suffer from similar underlying economic symptoms that can be traced back decades. In this article, I seek to analyze capitalist development in the MENA region and the process of neoliberal reforms.

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الحلقة الجهنّمية في سوريا تتواصل: الآثار الاقتصادية للغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا

للعواقب العالمية الناجمة عن #الحرب في #أوكرانيا تأثير مُتنامٍ على ملايين السوريين الذين يعانون أصلاً من وضع اجتماعي واقتصادي صعب

يستعرض جوزيف ضاهر، الباحث في مشروع زمن الحرب وما بعد الصراع في سوريا، آثار الحرب الأوكرانية على #الاقتصاد السوري على المديَين القصير والطويل، واستجابة السلطات المحلية غير الملائمة لهذه الأزمة

للاطّلاع على المزيد، إقرأ

https://bit.ly/3riXFnn

DYNAMICS IN AREAS CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF SYRIA IN 2030 – The Pivotal Role of Normalization versus Isolation

FES and SWP collective publication “Looking ahead Geopolitical dynamics and scenarios for Syria in 2030”

“DYNAMICS IN AREAS CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF SYRIA IN 2030 – The Pivotal Role of Normalization versus Isolation”

http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/19134.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2-GyR3JiAZhUt_6UqXB49jhzcBdjdvarUVJJ71YNXn3KWzqRuiwDEAEoI

The Hellish Cycle Continues for Syria: The Economic Impacts of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Regarding its worldwide consequences, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 is probably the most significant historical event since the US- and British-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003. In addition to its catastrophic humanitarian impact in eastern Europe, the war in Ukraine is already having a wide impact on the global economy, especially in commodity markets with the prices of oil and gas escalating rapidly. Russia and Ukraine provide almost a third of the world’s wheat exports and over 70% of all sunflower oil exports and 20% of corn, 26.6% of barely and 11% of oil, while Russia is one of the world’s most significant suppliers of fertiliser and related raw materials such as sulphur. Since the invasion, ports on the Black Sea have nearly ceased all forms of commercial activity, resulting in a historic rise in wheat prices surpassing levels witnessed during the global food crisis in 2007-08. Both countries have temporarily banned wheat exports. According to a study published by the OECD in March 2022, “the moves in commodity prices and financial markets seen since the outbreak of the war could, if sustained, reduce global GDP growth by over 1% in the first year, with a deep recession in Russia, and push up global consumer price inflation by approximately 2.5%.”

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Israel est un régime d’apartheid… what else?

Après les rapports des organisations des droits humains de Human Rights Watch, Yesh Din et B’Tselem en 2021, c’est au tour d’Amnesty International de qualifier d’apartheid le régime politique israélien, en s’appuyant sur une enquête menée de 2017 à 2021.

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Ukraine, Notre Camp, C’est Les Peuples en Lutte!

L’armée de Vladimir Poutine a finalement lancé le 24 février une attaque massive contre l’Ukraine, avec frappes aériennes et invasion terrestre, faisant en quelques heures des dizaines de morts avec des combats proches de Kiev et de la centrale de Tchernobyl, proche du Belarus. L’objectif déclaré de cette guerre serait selon le dirigeant despotique Poutine serait de réduire « les menaces sur la sécurité de la Russie » en « démilitarisant » et en « dénazifiant » l’Ukraine. Des prétextes, bien sûr mensongers, cherchant en réalité à dépecer et annexer des territoires dont on ignore, à ce jour, jusqu’où ils s’étendront. Cette invasion militaire impérialiste répond à deux objectifs principaux : s’opposer à l’autodétermination de l’ensemble des populations ukrainiennes et à la volonté d’extension de l’OTAN dirigée par les États-Unis.

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Expelled from the Support System: Austerity Deepens in Syria

After the gradual lifting on subsidies for oil derivatives, in 2020 and particularly 2021, Damascus took a next important step, on 1 February 2022. It announced the exclusion of approximately 600,000 families from its subsidy programme; something like three million people in total (based on an average of 5-6 individuals per Syrian household). Six hundred thousand families would account for around 15% of smart-cart holders.[1] The latest decision of the government, like previous austerity measures, increases economic marginalisation and political tensions. In Syria, it must be remembered, more than 90% of the population live under the poverty line and at least 13.1 million individuals need humanitarian aid.

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لبنان، وكيف أدى الاقتصاد السياسي ما بعدالحرب إلى الأزمة الاقتصادية والاجتماعية الراهن

ي هذه الورقة، يسلّط جوزيف ضاهر الضوء على كيفية قيام السياسات النيوليبرالية التي اتُّبعت في أعقاب الحرب الأهلية بتعزيز بعض السمات التاريخية للاقتصاد اللبناني. وتشمل هذه السياسات اندماجًا أعمق في الاقتصاد العالمي وتركيزًا على نمو القطاع الخاص على حساب قطاعات أخرى مهمة مثل الزراعة والصناعة

وعزز هذا النموذج الاقتصادي، الذي دعمه مختلف أصحاب المصلحة الإقليميين والدوليين، عدم المساواة المكانية والاجتماعية في البلاد، كما ساهم إلى حدٍ كبير في الأزمة اللبنانية الراهنة. وباستطاعة البلدان الخارجة من الحرب، مثل ليبيا، أن تتعلم دروسًا مفيدة من التجربة اللبنانية

وتشمل هذه الدروس بشكلٍ خاص كيف يمكن أن تُحدث الخيارات السياسية والاقتصادية المتخَذة اليوم أثرًا حاسمًا في تطوّر البلاد على المدى الطويل


متوفر باللغة العربية https://bit.ly/3ulUhua

Lebanon: How the Post War’s Political Economy Led to the Current Economic and Social Crisis

Is there anything Libyans can learn from #Lebanon’s current crisis? In his paper, Joseph Daher highlights how the #neoliberal policies pursued in the aftermath of the Civil War have reinforced certain historical features of the Lebanese economy.

available at the following link: https://bit.ly/3HkemF3

متوفر باللغة العربية https://bit.ly/3ulUhua

These include a deeper integration into the global economy and a focus on private-sector growth, at the expense of other important sectors such as agriculture and industry. Supported by various regional and international stakeholders, this economic model has accentuated the country’s spatial and social #inequalities and has highly contributed to Lebanon’s current crisis. Countries exiting war, such as #Libya, could usefully learn from the Lebanese experience. In particular, how political and economic choices made today could have a determining impact on the country’s long-term development.